For years, regular investors have watched companies like OpenAI and Anthropic soar in private valuations with no way to get a piece of the action. That is starting to change. Prediction markets platform Polymarket has launched a first-of-its-kind trading facility that allows everyday users to take positions on outcomes tied to private companies, including some of the most closely watched names in technology.
Announced on May 19, the new product was built in partnership with Nasdaq Private Market (NPM). According to BonusFinder’s guide to prediction markets, Polymarket will use NPM data to settle contracts covering IPO timing, company valuations, key milestones, and secondary market activity. The result is that a sector previously accessible only to accredited investors is now open, in a limited way, to the general public.
Polymarket has outlined that there are over 1,600 so-called unicorn businesses, privately held startups valued at more than a billion dollars, that are unavailable for traditional retail trading. Most people who have followed the rise of OpenAI, Anthropic, or SpaceX can only watch from the sidelines while those valuations climb. The new product gives a sideways route in: rather than buying shares, users buy contracts on specific outcomes.
What Traders Can Actually Bet On
The contracts currently available on Polymarket cover a range of questions tied to private company behavior. Will a given company reach a particular valuation before a set date? Which of two major AI rivals will complete an IPO first? Will a specific secondary market transaction take place? One live listing at the time of writing asks directly: “Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?” If the chosen outcome proves correct, the contract pays out.
The timing is notable. OpenAI is widely reported to be working toward a public listing, and Anthropic’s valuation recently surpassed OpenAI’s after completing a Series H funding round that valued the company at close to $965 billion. Both companies are among the most talked-about potential IPOs in years, and prediction market traders have been active on both. Polymarket’s new product brings NPM’s institutional-grade settlement data into that equation, replacing informal crowd estimates with a direct feed from one of the world’s most credible private market data sources.
The development carries relevance beyond Wall Street. North County San Diego is home to a fast-growing community of tech workers, startup founders, and small business owners who have increasingly explored AI tools and platforms in recent years. San Diego’s small business community has been among the early adopters of AI-driven operations, and many of those same businesses and individuals are now watching the AI sector’s march toward public markets with genuine financial interest.
How Polymarket Differs From Kalshi
Prediction markets have been among the most contested new products in US financial and gambling regulation over the past two years. Kalshi, Polymarket’s main rival, also offers contracts tied to possible IPO listings, but stops short of the precise valuation markets that Polymarket now publishes. The two platforms also differ in how they settle contracts. Kalshi draws on a range of sources including company websites and Securities and Exchange Commission filings. Polymarket’s integration with NPM feeds institutional-grade data directly into its settlement process, a distinction that could attract users who want more credibility behind the numbers.
Nasdaq Vice President of Data Rodolfo Sanchez described the arrangement as a two-way exchange, with Polymarket trading activity potentially serving as a “real-time signal” for institutional investors seeking wider market intelligence on private company movements. That framing positions the product not just as a consumer trading tool but as a data loop between retail sentiment and institutional analysis.
What Comes Next
Polymarket has confirmed that additional markets will be introduced on an ongoing basis, suggesting the current range of private company contracts is just a starting point. For now, the focus is on the companies that have dominated tech investment conversation for the past three years, and particularly the looming question of whether OpenAI, Anthropic, or another major private AI firm will be the first to open on a public exchange.
Prediction markets remain a contested product in the United States. Several states have filed legal challenges against the category, and the regulatory landscape is still being defined. But the Polymarket-NPM partnership represents a meaningful expansion of what these platforms can offer, moving beyond sports and politics into the heart of the private tech economy. For anyone who has watched the AI boom from the outside, the question of which company goes public first, and at what price, just became tradeable.
