SAN DIEGO — UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography unveiled a new website today that forecasts sewage contamination levels at coastlines stretching from southern San Diego County into Mexico.
The Pathogen Forecast Model predicts shoreline sewage concentrations and estimates the risk of illness for swimmers visiting Playas Tijuana, Imperial Beach, Silver Strand State Park, and Coronado.
Scripps officials said the website will generate forecasts up to five days in advance.
The model is supported by state funding awarded as part of efforts to address the longstanding issues of transboundary sewage flowing from Mexico into the waters of south San Diego County.
“I applaud the progress made by Scripps Institution of Oceanography to develop a model capable of predicting swimmer illness risk up to five days in advance,” said state Sen. Steve Padilla, D-San Diego.
“Communities like Imperial Beach have been at the epicenter of this crisis for a generation, and they deserve real, science-driven solutions. This tool gives critical, science-based insight to inform timely beach management decisions, protect the health of beachgoers and help minimize impacts to local businesses.”
Falk Feddersen, Scripps oceanographer and the project’s lead, said that while the model “has considerable skill” in predicting conditions, “Of course, just like with weather forecasts, the model has error. It is still experimental.”
The research team also said that its forecasts don’t serve the same purpose as the county’s advisories regarding beach closures. Daily advisories, warnings, and closures are available at https://www.sdbeachinfo.com/ and https://tjdashboard.netlify.app/.
The team behind the model plans to improve its forecasts in the near future, aiming for a more accurate norovirus forecast that will help swimmers assess their potential risks more effectively. This next phase is planned for summer 2026.
The Pathogen Forecast Model can be viewed at https://pfmweb.ucsd.edu/
