North County firefighters warn of local wildfire risks after LA devastation

ENCINITAS — Current and former firefighters in North County San Diego are raising concerns about the region’s ability to handle a large-scale wildfire, urging local leaders to take proactive measures following the recent devastating blazes in Los Angeles.

Although local fire departments have effectively controlled fires in North County, several firefighters say that without enhanced risk mitigation and response strategies, the region could be overwhelmed by a fast-moving wildfire like the ones that burned through Pacific Palisades and Altadena in early January.

“If what happened in L.A. happened in North County, I don’t think you can really rely on the fire department,” said David Smith, a retired 35-year veteran of the Los Angeles City Fire Department who now lives in Encinitas. “Our fire department can’t really defend masses of homes under those kinds of conditions… we would be overwhelmed.”

Larry Giles, who recently retired as marine safety captain of the Encinitas Fire and Marine Safety Department after over 30 years as a first responder, agreed.

“I don’t really see any real differences between here [North County] and there [Los Angeles] in terms of how that fire spread and what would likely happen here… you’d see the same results here in terms of a very large impact with many homes lost,” Giles said.

Firefighters and first responders interviewed for this story urged cities like Encinitas, Rancho Santa Fe and Escondido to reassess evacuation plans and improve resource deployment strategies before disaster strikes.

Encinitas Fire Chief Josh Gordon said he is confident in his department’s overall preparedness but acknowledged that additional resources and support from local governments are necessary to prevent a large-scale disaster like those seen in L.A.

As of Jan. 28, the Los Angeles fires had killed at least 29 people, forced over 200,000 evacuations, and destroyed or damaged more than 16,000 structures, according to Cal Fire.

Similar fire conditions

Alexandra Syphard, a senior research scientist at the Conservation Biology Institute, warned that conditions in North County San Diego closely resemble those in Los Angeles, increasing the risk of a similar wildfire event.

Syphard said that two wet years followed by a dry season have created expansive, dry grasslands across Southern California, providing fuel for fast-spreading fires. Additionally, Santa Ana winds, which have strengthened in recent years, can push flames into residential areas faster than firefighters can respond.

“Vegetation management is more important than ever around houses in Southern California,” Syphard said. “What we’re seeing are wind-driven events with millions of embers raining down, creating spot fires faster—and that’s what’s most responsible for houses being destroyed.”

Los Angeles Fire Department firefighter Steve Meiche, an Encinitas resident with 45 years on the job, said some North County cities are not enforcing brush clearance standards in high-risk areas like Olivenhain.

“We have large areas of flammable vegetation like they had up in the L.A. fires, and there’s no brush clearance enforcement here,” Meiche said. “There’s going to be areas of dense vegetation during a fire here that are just going to burn regardless, but the Santa Ana winds could easily blow through Olivenhain and burn the neighborhoods here, so it’s an issue for our departments here.” 

L.A. has strict defensible space requirements, yet those measures weren’t enough to prevent widespread destruction. Meiche said North County, where vegetation management policies are looser, could see even worse losses in a major wildfire.

One high-risk area, he said, is the Escondido Creek in Olivenhain, where large amounts of dense, dry vegetation remain unchecked.

“The Encinitas Fire Department, unfortunately, doesn’t have a good reputation — they’re very reactive,” Meiche said. “If we had a big wildfire here affecting Carlsbad, Encinitas, Rancho Santa Fe, I think we’d lose major neighborhoods that people never thought would be at risk, including shopping centers.”

Tall trees towering over homes in Encinitas also pose a significant concern, Giles said.

“I look out over the city, and with that type of fire, I honestly don’t know what the plan is to stop it from spreading onto structures with embers being tossed around,” Giles said. “It’s just insane.”

Resource challenges, staffing shortages

While Gordon highlighted recent successes in suppressing vegetation fires in Fallbrook, he acknowledged that a disaster-level wildfire could quickly outmatch North County’s fire resources.

“If you get 90 mph winds and a fire as big as the Palisades [fire], we’re really not staffed for those kinds of natural disasters,” Gordon said. “We’re staffed to run single structure fires and handle medical emergencies. We really rely on automatic aid, mutual aid, Cal Fire, and FEMA to bolster staffing during major disasters.”

Meiche noted that fire engine staffing levels in North County fall short of L.A.’s standards, making effective wildfire response more difficult.

For example, while LAFD requires at least four personnel per engine and six per truck company, Encinitas fire engines and truck companies are typically manned with three firefighters each due to staffing constraints. The National Fire Protection Association recommends a minimum of four per engine.

Additionally, fire-prone areas like Olivenhain should have dedicated patrol engines, yet no such units exist, Meiche said.

Smith contended that while North County leadership’s approach to fire safety may have been adequate in previous years, it was time to bolster resources for fire departments in light of changing weather conditions that are exacerbating regional fire risk. 

“We have the same weather conditions in North County that they have up in Altadena, but the difference is we have far less staff,” Smith said. “We don’t have the manpower or equipment to do what needs to be done in the event of a fire like that.”

Expected population growth in cities like Encinitas — driven in part by recently approved housing developments — seems to have outpaced fire safety resources, said Giles, who pointed out that the plethora of new housing projects would likely complicate evacuation plans in a major disaster. 

“This city has continued to grow, and we’ve had some major new housing developments and zoning changes as well. That stuff creeps in, and before you know it, it’s like, ‘Wow, we don’t have enough staffing and resources,’” Giles said. 

Evacuation routes

For years, first responders and local officials have warned that North County cities may not be adequately prepared for evacuations during a major wildfire or other disaster. Those concerns have intensified as state housing mandates have pushed cities like Encinitas to approve larger housing projects, which some say could complicate evacuation procedures and impede emergency access for first responders.

Delays in evacuations can be one of the biggest obstacles to firefighters in suppressing wildfires, leading to more significant destruction of homes and potential loss of life, said Dave McQuead, chief of the Rancho Santa Fe Fire Protection District.

McQuead and other fire officials stressed the importance of educating residents to follow evacuation orders immediately when given. However, even if residents evacuate as instructed, traffic congestion and road design changes could jeopardize emergency response times.

In Encinitas, the Leucadia Streetscape project, which is nearing completion, will reduce Coast Highway 101 from four to two lanes along a two-mile stretch between A Street and La Costa Avenue. Some first responders and local leaders have argued that the project has worsened emergency response times, potentially endangering evacuation efforts in a fire or disaster.

“My main concern with our fire department in the last ten years has been that they’ve made significant concessions in terms of their response capabilities in order to accomplish things like Streetscape,” Smith said. “Congesting traffic like this does really affect the department’s ability to get in, if a fire was to come through, and also it affects people’s ability to get out to safety.”

Evacuation challenges remain significant in fire-prone communities across North County, especially in areas with limited escape routes, such as Olivenhain, Rancho Santa Fe, and Escondido’s Harmony Grove Village.

Neighborhoods in the urban-wildland interface, such as Escondido, Rancho Santa Fe, and Olivenhain, risk being overwhelmed by fire before emergency crews respond, according to Syphard, who noted that in Los Angeles, there was “almost no time for firefighters to get in there” due to congested ingress and egress routes.

The risk of clogged evacuation routes was also a concern for Escondido Mayor Dane White, who said the city is looking at fire safety improvements in response to the challenges seen in Los Angeles.

“Part of the issue in L.A. was the lack of individual preparedness with things like radios, 72-hour kits and even evacuation routes,” White said. “With respect to the city [Escondido] itself, we will be taking a good look at all of our open space and unused properties to ensure there isn’t fuel enough for a fire to move as quickly and with the intensity of the L.A. fires. We could also do a better job of educating our residents on home hardening, defensible spaces and general emergency preparedness.”

‘A catastrophe waiting to happen’

In Harmony Grove Village, a community outside Escondido, the town council warned that new housing projects could turn an already dangerous wildfire scenario into a “catastrophe waiting to happen,” according to J.P. Theberge, vice president of the Elfin Forest Harmony Grove Town Council.

In January, Theberge and other council members warned that increased housing density could hinder an already dangerous ingress/egress situation, potentially resulting in traffic backed up for seven hours in the event of an evacuation, with residents unable to escape and first responders unable to enter the community.

“Despite best efforts, a development like HGV will still see losses in the hundreds of homes during a major wildfire event,” said Theberge.

Olivenhain residents face similar challenges and unique obstacles, particularly related to equestrian evacuations, as horses and trailers could clog already-limited escape routes, Giles said.

“With Olivenhain, ingress and egress is tough. There’s very few exit points, and it’s really tight,” Giles said. “There’s probably going to be abandoned cars blocking roads, making certain areas inaccessible.”

An evacuation plan for Olivenhain, adopted by the Encinitas Fire Department in 2021, notes that animals and trailers could inhibit an orderly evacuation and result in costly delays. 

“Large-animal evacuations present a unique challenge for the Olivenhain community. The long, narrow roadways that form the evacuation routes will not simultaneously accommodate the expected number of evacuating vehicles and horse trailers,” the report states. “Attempting to evacuate large animals when a fast-moving fire is threatening Olivenhain will significantly extend the evacuation clearance time.” 

Gordon said Olivenhain is the only Encinitas community with a formal and community-specific evacuation plan. The rest of the city relies on a San Diego County evacuation framework that addresses evacuation planning on a broader scale. Notably, this framework does not include updated information on the city’s population levels or estimate how long it would take to evacuate.

This is due to a host of factors — including the size of the fire, wind speeds and direction — not being predictable in advance, Gordon said. 

“Creating an actual number [evacuation time estimate] is very challenging–the dynamic nature of any large-scale fire would make it almost impossible to know the true evacuation orders, routes and shelter locations. This makes determining any evacuation time for the city impossible,” Gordon said. 

However, the lack of details on evacuation specifics has left some concerned that municipal resources would quickly be overwhelmed in a major wildfire.

“When will the order be given, and what happens when Carlsbad, Elfin Forest, and Rancho Santa Fe are all evacuating at the same time?” Meiche asked. “How are suppression units supposed to get in? That’s why it’s important to pre-deploy and staff extra engines. Two guys and a pickup truck protecting all of Olivenhain. That’s absurd.”